Unleashing National Growth through Secured Governance – Present / Post COVID 19

 

By Dr. P. Sekhar

 

Chairman, Global Smart Cities Panel & Micro Tech Global Foundation

Introduction

We are giving a workable strategy with a growth plan for getting over the havoc created by COVID 19. It is like World war III and has brought the whole world to grinding halt bringing key Economies of all developed and developing countries to tailspin. Bigger the countries larger the fall. India has also been greatly affected even though the human damage has been very well contained due to some good systems in place as also quick and timely actions taken. But the damage is great as there was the on-going Economic slide on a vast country with its multi dimentional road blocks to take this COVID 19 onslaught. There is very little resources monetary and physical ones to take up this challenge. So there is a great need to get a strategy which takes these ground situations to get things back on track. Here Secured Governance Model is considered which works on Self sustained Techno Economic growth through Value and valuation through the range of hidden potential in all sectors of economy. The article gives a ground plan for seamless growth with immediate employment far exceeding the last year with enhanced Infrastructure in sectors of economy with minimal investments from Government as there is anyway very little funds available considering the magnitude required.

In this context our country need to be boost investment in healthcare sector and other supporting sector to meet efficient health response and service. The insufficient funding allocation of government on healthcare sector and high out-of-pocket expenditure cannot meet all the demands and needs of the citizen. Secured Governance a novel strategy designed to minimise the gap of healthcare infrastructure development and services through private and international participation in social sector. The value and valuation strategy offers sophisticated funding mechanism and tailored to the economic growth and generate huge employment opportunity.

Virus impact: Global Economy

Global GDP growth is projected to slow from 2.9% in 2019 to 2.4% this year, before picking up to around 3¼% in 2021 as the effects of the coronavirus fade and output gradually recovers. Equity prices and non-food commodity prices are lowered by 10% in the first half of 2020.

Impacts on the Indian Economy

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on April slashed growth forecast for the Indian economy, projecting a GDP growth of 1.9% in 2020 and growth of the Indian economy in 2021, at a rate of 7.4%. The lockdown will cost the Indian economy almost US$4.64 billion (over INR. 35,000 crore) every day and the entire 21-day lockdown will result in a GDP loss of almost US$98 billion (about INR. 7.5 lakh crore). Production shutdowns, labour and supply chain disruptions - especially for companies exposed to international trade-as well as falling consumption, have raised serious concerns about the short- to-medium term viability of many businesses, including the MSMEs.

Need of Strategies for re-emerging as a Growing Economy

With the onset on COVID 19 and its catastrophic impact there is need to strategically plan for getting the Economy back on track. By much of the conventional methods things do not seem to go forward as the downturn created is massive. Secured Governance offers a unique solution to get through this massive boulder created by the fear and death by this World War III. Let us understand the relative numbers of births deaths in India and Internationally by the enclosed facts and figures to get proper idea and a confirmation that this system would see us through this avalanche.

Understanding birth and death in India and whole world

Even though COVID 19 has devastated India and the world through fear and death caused it would be of interest to consider the facts and figures on this aspect before and during COVID era. In the World in a year 150 million persons are born and 90 million die averaging to 4.2 lakh births and 1.2 lakh deaths per day. For India these figures are 76,000 births and 27,000 deaths per day. These figures are noted to estimate to what level COVID 19 can go as also to know the actual facts on ground. One good fact on the ground is that the no of COVID 19 death is much less than the daily Accident deaths and so on the whole more Indians are there for a brighter future to be seen on the strategy proposed in this article.

Key Statistics of Indian Population (in numbers, 2019)

 

Distribution of Deaths by Major Cause

 

Key Statistics of World Population (in numbers, 2019)

 

 

Birth & Death Statistics of Some Selected Countries (2019, in numbers)

 

Many of these deaths were probably caused by various causes, but — statistics viewed as key measures of the impact of the outbreak is comparatively tolerable.

Per day Birth & Death of Some Selected Countries (2020, in numbers)

 

Global Coronavirus Current Situation (as on 15 – 04 – 2020, in numbers):

 

All numbers given above and generally in this article are from Government & authentic sources.

Self – Sustained Economic growth through Secured Governance for India

Secured Governance is a strategy that relates to the develop a relationship between infrastructures development in all sectors along with private and foreign investors will be partners and Government as governing body to foster, coordinate and create sustainable economic growth and employment opportunity.

 

“Secured Governance offers a strategy for the government to get all the basic infrastructure development with a negligible investment by the Government. It is a concept of developing Techno Economic Corridors connecting HUBs which will act as growth centre for individual sectors. The very concept of “Secured’’ here implies a secured convergence or knitting with various sectors defining a growth for an economy.”

Overview of Healthcare Statistics in India (in numbers)

In India, major hospitals are mostly located in metropolitan cities and semi urban areas and less number in rural areas. The current strength of hospital beds is about 7.14 lakh and another 7 lakh+ needs to be added in the current period. Ideally, it needs to be four beds per 1,000 people, keeping in mind the sheer geographical spread of the country and the geography’s varied population density. Secured Governance strategy designed to minimise the gap of Healthcare infrastructure and promote private participation in development of Healthcare HUB. The value and valuation strategy offers sophisticated funding mechanism and tailored to the economic growth and generate huge employment opportunity. Here all Healthcare Enterprises would get additional land and greater FSI to be used for funding the needs on a continuous basis. Certain other sectors like Religious and spiritual ones would be encouraged to invest in this to bring greater expansion and spread to rural areas.

 

Virus Impact on Tourism & Hospitality Sector

It is believed that around 70% out of a total 5.5 crore workforce could get affected by this virus, which is around 3.8 crore direct and indirect employees. A large percentage of total tourism business activity of India, which is estimated at US$28 billion+ in FOREX and upwards of INR.2 lakh crore in domestic tourism activity will be at economic risk through the year. Thus, in excess of INR.5 lakh crore of direct tourism industry and almost double that of total economic activity is at risk.

India is known for offering alternate Medicines and has certified & Accredited Wellness & Ayurveda Centres. Ayurveda is a 5,000-year-old system of natural healing that has its origins in the Vedic culture of India. Ayurveda has been enjoying a major resurgence in both its native land.

Secured Governance – Roadmap to a Prospering Tourism Industry

Tourism and hospitality industries along with Airline and Airport Management needs to be specially taken care by encouraging International and National tourist in different segments with proper incentives. On the local level various stakeholders in these segments needs to give attractive diversification opportunities for sustenance till the sectors comes back. Much of the funds allocated should be routed through these industries to give salaries and wages and encourage corporates to give incentives for persons going on Tourism. Overseas Indians should be encouraged to come as Tourists and taken on guided tours as we have 25M captive audience. Besides the tourism curriculum and skills development programmes be designed in a manner that addresses the needs of the sector, thus bridging the gap between the education system and the workplace - preparing the graduates for employment.

This would get the tourism industry back as gold mine, waiting to be explored as it is identified as one of the top six priority areas in the New Growth Path for the promotion of economic development and job creation. It could generate a significant economic impact by increasing revenues and boosting FOREX volumes while inducing greater employment and business opportunities for the citizens of the country

Impacts on Transport Sector

A significant economic fallout of the novel virus is the resulting inefficiencies across the country’s already overburdened logistics landscape, employs more than 40 million people and contributes US$200 billion plus to the economy. The total number of registered motor vehicles has increased from about 0.3 million in 1951 to 230.03 million up to now; recording a growth rate of about 10.7%, annually. The supply chain of about 25,000-30,000 supermarkets have so far been impacted due to the COVID 19 lockdown announced. The outbreak and the subsequent lockdown across states resulted in stuck shipments increasing by 9%, order delays were up by 21%, and delivery percentage has seen a clear decline of 9%.

Road and aviation are key contributors to emissions from transport, contributing 72% and 11% of the transport sector’s greenhouse gas emissions respectively. Lockdowns in India’s megacities kept cars off the road and closed factories, improving air quality and letting people see blue skies and clean water in the rivers. Emissions caused partly by industry, vehicle exhaust and coal-fired plants. Because of toxic air claimed around 1.24 million lives in India last year.

Electric Vehicle impact on Environment and improve the Human Health

The global pollution is on rise and every effort made, being to reduce the CO2 emissions and save the planet. One such effort is the introduction of Electric Vehicles (EV).

 

Secured Governance is a concept that is catching the attention of many as a holistic approach to infrastructure needs, offering a great deal. It professes taking advantage of valuation of assets created, and delivering at almost no cost to the government. It offers self – sustained economic growth, more societal participation and benefit sharing with transparency. Underlying this is a strategy of developing techno-economic corridors connecting HUBs (EV & Battery manufacturing plants), Mini HUBs (EV charging stations & Service centres) and Nano HUBs (EV accessory Retail centres) across the country by private investors.

The SG approach requires the Government to participate as a facilitator and nothing more. The successful shift to electric vehicles could potentially help India save up to US$300 billion (INR 20 Lakh Cr.) in oil imports and nearly 1 giga tonne of carbon dioxide emissions by 2030. More than 30.92 million EV produced in FY 2018 – 19 reporting a jump of 6.26% from the previous fiscal. Besides EVs will be a stepping stone towards designing an intelligent, futuristic transport infrastructure in India that is capable of catering to the mobility, reduce CO2 rate and create approximately 15 million employment opportunity.

Effect on the Agriculture Sector and Strategies to get things back on track

COVID-19 is disrupting some activities in agriculture and supply chains. Agriculture is backbone of Indian Economy and in this time of crisis this is a very important sector Globally where its importance has got enhanced To get this important sector on track and enhance too much upper level India should gear to be a Global Food factory. Indian food is well accepted internationally and all planning have to be to gear up a Global supply chain. By this there would be free flow of Funds locally and

Internationally. Deserving good Technologies should be encouraged to be applied with good incentives. There has to be a seamless movement of raw vegetables to processed food from the production to users with minimal middle men who should now add value and give the farmers their rightful earnings. Agri Hubs should encourage in each Districts to even villages for specific specialities with all supporting systems. A monitoring mechanism to offer immediate assistance should be expanded from its current level. Agriculture with good food as its proper outcome would play a greater role globally and India should be in forefront.

The Role of Worship Places in Emergencies

Historically religion has been involved in the welfare of the community. There are around 3.1 million worship places all over India that includes Temples, Mosques, Gurudwaras, Churches and Monasteries etc. People in India donate huge amount of money at these worship places and other religious institutions for many reasons. As per various calculations, in the previous year, total income of 13 major temples was near about INR. 5,200 crores. There are around 5 lakh acres of land owned by these temples. Only few percentage of money will be used for maintenance of temple services.

 

These religious places could spend certain percentage of donations may furnish to disaster relief and emergency services, such as provide food, cloth and basic healthcare services.

• • Social sectors like education, healthcare and sports activities will be taking charge by worship places.
• • Prime religious destination like Temple, Church Mosque etc. other worship places will be developed developing that as a Tourism HUB.
• • Wealth of many worship places are in the position of provide financial support for industry growth of the country.
• ◊ Selecting Existing Religious or natural Tourist Location etc. and developing it as Tourism HUB OR Developing a New Strategically selected location to a Tourism HUB with state of art infrastructures and Amenities.
• ◊ It will not only facilitate National growth and provide additional revenue from Tourism facilities but also will facilitate an employment opportunity for approximately 20 – 25 million Population.

A few years earlier, the World Gold Council estimated gold holdings temples in the country could be 3,000-4,000 tonnes. (≈INR. 8.4 lakh crore – 11.2 lakh crore). The net wealth of all major worship places could be around US$ 2 trillion (≈INR. 142.3 lakh crores) in India.

Many of the spiritual organisations and worship places have adequate funds to give financial support to restart national economy through industry and manufacturing sector.

Companies and Commercial enterprises to accelerate Economy growth

India with its US$2.9 trillion economy needs to get back quickly on its businesses and more than its billion people to get to a better structure of growth. Air, road and rail transport systems which are suspended should be back on track with new guidelines with less than 250 of India’s 700-odd districts reporting the infection. The lockdown which is now deeply hurting the economy needs to now strategically be brought on a level playing field. About 66% of the 18.73 lakh companies registered in India, out of that 6.70 lakh were closed and 1,615 were classified as dormant.

Summary Statistics of Indian Companies

 

Secured Governance concept designed a novel concept that defunct companies will be takeover by another directors, stakeholders, investors or group of employees to run the business successfully. At any cost functions of companies or industries never be closed instead of continue by another employer or owner. This would get back a large number of jobs as also revenues and taxes. A liberal approach by banks would greatly help. Here a view of the company and promoters past track record on their employment, taxes paid till date should also define their present and future rankings.

Secured Governance Strategy for Industries & Enterprises

Industrial and commercial enterprises small and big are the ones providing the much needed employment and fund flow for growth and prosperity. In this immediate steps should be taken to activate all the working and closed companies with a commitment to ensure jobs opportunities and Government should outsource much of its activities including Healthcare which would have huge scope for profitable employment. In these Secured Governance concept should be judicially used to minimise actual Government spending as it will not have the requirements needed for vast population requiring support. Secured Governance through tapping the hidden potential for growth including offering differential FSI to the enterprises against committed outputs of the companies to get desired results with negligible fund outflow. By this there could be maximum industrial growth with great employment and make India the Manufacturing hub for the world. There is great expectation from all advanced countries to sources products from India which is also true with African and Arab countries which could be taken to get quick results in the number of green field Smart Cities where there should be a Single Window SG Committee to clear all requirements of the company proposals. The government has to open all companies in the changed circumstances committed to growth and employment with judicious Bank funds. Banks should be encouraged to establish their own Banking Industrial zones for their clients with all clearances and support in place for quick success of the companies small and big. The Industrial Zones through SG should be planned so that the growing land valuation would give then good flexibility in Fund management and compensate for some percentage of existing and future (Non-Performing Assets) NPAs.

Banking Sector for Funding

 

Public-sector and private finance institutions have sufficient liquidity that needs to be utilised by private and foreign organisations. Increased credit disbursal by banks could boost investment in infrastructure to scale up their operations and generate direct and indirect job opportunities.

Overseas Indians for Strategic National growth through Secured Governance

Remittances give countries the ability to fund development their own way. India retained its position as the world’s top recipient of remittances with its diaspora sending a whopping US$80 billion back home in the last year. An estimated 31 million Indians are living abroad now, they provide a variety of economic benefits to the home and host countries. While it is only 2.25% of India’s population, their total wealth is estimated at US$1 trillion which is nearly 50% of India’s GDP. Of the US$1 trillion, one-half is estimated to be financial assets. The income of the Indian diaspora is estimated at US$ 400 billion a year.

 

• ◊ Indian overseas people can set up a financial services those where more Indian population countries. The financial institution can support fund transaction services for affordable percentage of remittance for Indian diaspora and other countries. More over these institutions can offer easy credit access to boost economic growth of host countries.
• ◊ Configure Indian law enforcement services in emphasis with approval of host country and ensure that the force activity could help them to maintain law and order in case of any Indian person commit crime in their territories. If a person from India committed offence in other countries, he will be penalised as per the host country’s law and punishment will be held in home country. There is no way to escape from the punishment.
• ◊ Overseas population need to be encouraged in ““Technology transfer cum Investment” with latent potential of India.

India is positioned well against these opportunities given its large pool of qualified manpower, track record in service delivery in sectors like IT, and lower costs (specifically in areas such as medical treatment and education services). However, in order to convert these opportunities into actual revenues, India Inc. will have to take several initiatives.

There are six thrust areas for action to boost demand for India’s services:

• • Strengthen India Inc. image/brand;
• • Focus marketing on select countries with select services;
• • Build customer credibility; Promote acceptability of the ‘offshore’ concept;
• • Improve service experience for customers;/ Invest in promoting trials

Besides, there are six thrust areas for action to boost supply of India’s services:

• * Develop domain expertise in specific areas
• * Reform education and training sector to increase base of skilled professionals
• * Strengthen connectivity infrastructure (telecom, IT, airports)
• * Promote public-private partnerships; / Form interest groups around opportunities
• * Align legal and regulatory structure

Strategic action is required in many sectors where business people and government agencies must continue to work together or begin to work together more effectively to ensure that India Inc. wins. Entrepreneurship in thought and action, alignment amongst actors, and speedy execution are the keys to success. Secured Governance is a novel strategy that designed to assist during uncertainty in the global economy and recognise the impact on economy and individuals throughout the nation.

Defence Forces Contribution in COVID 19

Armed Forces Medical Services is the backbone of India’s defence. With roughly 7,000 specialists and super specialists spread across India, and over 130 hospitals, military medicine is an asset that rarely comes into limelight. And this is the backbone to which India turned to when a unique medical crisis threatened from across the borders. The local forces are balancing the current situation and still be able to respond to unforeseen COVID 19 pandemic outbreak. In this context, the armed forces could provide fund support to meet some requirement somewhere.

Development in Backward Areas

Moving away from populated areas makes more sense when you see that barely 2% of the land in our country is populated. Development of wastelands approximately 557,600 sq. km (17% of total geography area) offers enormous potential both for economic development by private bodies such as various HUBs, Mini HUBs & Nano HUBs and sustainable employment generation.

Various Secured Governance HUBs

Mini HUBs: Around 1,000 Mini HUBs can be developed in each districts of India. Local government will get additional revenue through this various mini HUBs to meet extra budget burden of public sector maintenance (includes salary, infrastructure repairing, etc.) expenditure such as Education, Healthcare, Law & Order, Solid Waste Management and other Civic activities.

Nano HUBs: Nano HUBs will be a part of an existing or new development project. These HUBs will not only facilitate public utility space for the travellers but also promote small scale commercial units generating employment and revenue for the defined region.

A typical Nano-HUB will be spread over an area of 1000 to 2000 sq. m, comprising of facilities like Roadside Stations, Motorway Service Areas, Retail & Minor Ancillary Uses, Toilets/Washrooms, Parking Facilities, Health Clinics, Internet Cafes, ATMs, Handicraft shops, Small Hotels, Restrooms, etc.

Establish around 6 lakh Nano ­ HUBs in the rural areas of India is an effort to create a small yet compact mechanism to generate employment opportunity and minimize the rural urban migration. Detailed investment and employment opportunity is given in below table:

 

Post COVID-19 Happiness Index Rank of India

The World Happiness Report is a landmark survey of the state of global happiness that ranks 156 countries by how happy their citizens perceive themselves to be. When measured, there are six components of happiness: GDP per capita, social support, healthy life expectancy, sense of freedom to make life choices, generosity, and perception of corruption. Hidden potential of India that measures the ability of an economy to generate sufficient employment opportunities for its population The very Secured Governance formulation of value and valuation of strong link between existing hidden potential, economic growth, create employment opportunity and poverty reduction activities would ensure India’s happiness index rank to be deservingly in top bracket.

Conclusion

There is need to see growth on the present state and post COVID 19. Here through the Secured Governance strategy following steps are suggested.

The growth has to be through the hidden potential through a self-sustained mechanism. Government should offer full leadership and support through proper policies and open various channels starting with Healthcare which is badly hit and open all avenues in other sectors for all round growth. To start with the Government has announced fiscal remedies of the order of 1.75 lakh crores. This has to very strategically routed to get maximum benefit to the public and has a multiplicative effect for beneficiaries. These should be properly outsourced with additional sweeteners to get multiple times impact on the users. For example this should be given to successfully running PSUs, Banks with additional FSI and sectorial incentives as a commodity to achieve the primary objective to feed the starving public as also have long-term benefit for their employment and better living standards. Here all efforts should be to get much of these in rural areas in Waste land which should benefit the most for all stakeholders.

Banks should create their own Industrial Zones as profit centers for their clients and benefit them through valuation for future growth and full support to the expanding Industries.

As World is looking forward to India to be a better Manufacturing and Services Hub these hubs should concentrate on various sectors to have synergy to take on Global requirements.

Government should encourage overseas Indians to fully participate in these by investments, Technology, Training and support. Here every year 3 million Indians should be encouraged to settle in other countries for this to grow perpetually as also to take care of the 20 million extra persons born every year. Indians abroad have to go as Ambassadors and MEA have to play a key role as this would be a major source of income for the National and growth of the other countries where they are going.

Religious and spiritual places have lot to offer in the new development strategy. The Gold, Money, land and continuous flow of devotees all have respective role in the new plans. These places keeping up their respective sanctity have to be encouraged to expand in Healthcare, Education, Skill development, Sports, Water management and larger among them to be Banks and Financial Institutions all these adhering to respective rules by statutory authorities. This would get over 10 lakh crores in circulation from the 3M places on worship and spiritual centers of excellence. We need to ensure their identities are not disturbed but enhanced by them offering these activities which as such going on in a small way now.

There are many actions to be taken on the personal and professional level. In India we need to make 2 years mandatory for everyone to be involved in Social, Defence, Security etc. to build a strong character

For proper administration certain changes are required for efficiency which includes having all postings to be minimum 3 years and maximum 6 years. In all post there would be mandatory 5 to 15 days joint working with the successor and the predecessor being an Advisor for next 10 years for proper continuity in all these management to be successful.

Agriculture plays a dominant role and needs to be properly streamlined and Agri HUBs with full banking support for proper growing with all supporting activities and distribution to make India the Global Food Factory.

All these could be started even in the lockdown period with 30% to 50% people participation and later expanded to 400 million persons actively associated. Secured Governance strategy provide an ambitious roadmap which depict an adequate and coordinated measures to ensure the provision of sustained financial capital, efficient human capital, and sustainable economic growth of the nation.